Haruspex AI Analysis

NVIDIA Corporation NVDA

Analyzed for: swing

62/100

Bullish — Over the upcoming weeks, NVIDIA is supported by strong competitive positioning, robust earnings momentum, and heavy ins...

Momentum: +11 strong

Key Takeaways

Biggest Positive Factor

Competitive Intelligence

Score 85/100 · Change +0

Biggest Risk

Technical Analysis

Score 42/100 · Change +0

Why now

Over the upcoming weeks, NVIDIA is supported by strong competitive positioning, robust earnings momentum, and heavy institutional and options market bullishness, but near-term technical weakness and slowing open source activity warrant caution. The balance of signals points to a moderately bullish outlook, with upside contingent on price reclaiming key moving averages.

Top Factor

Competitive Intelligence

85/100 · +0

Analysis Reliability

Moderate

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Why Now

  • Top support: Competitive Intelligence is 85/100 (Competitive Intelligence currently adds strong bullish pressure for NVDA. NVIDIA holds a dominant competitive position in AI infrastructure, with revenue growth over double that of AMD and a profit margin nearly 5x higher. Its market cap leadership and strong competitive advantage suggest continued outperformance, though valuation is neutral and market share trends need monitoring for swing trading. Watch near-term earnings catalysts and any shifts in AI spending sentiment to confirm or weaken this signal.).
  • Main risk: Technical Analysis is 42/100 (Technical Analysis currently creates bearish pressure for NVDA. NVDA is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The RSI is neutral at 47.4, but the MACD remains bearish, suggesting selling pressure persists. Watch break below $189.80 support could accelerate selling to confirm or weaken this signal.).
  • Over the upcoming weeks, NVIDIA is supported by strong competitive positioning, robust earnings momentum, and heavy institutional and options market bullishness, but near-term technical weakness and slowing open source activity warrant caution. The balance of signals points to a moderately bullish outlook, with upside contingent on price reclaiming key moving averages.

Top Factors

  • Competitive Intelligence 85/100 · +0
  • Earnings Intelligence 72/100 · +0
  • Institutional Ownership Intelligence 70/100 · +0

Analysis Snapshot

Overall Outlook: Bullish

Strongest Area: Competitive Intelligence (85/100)

Main Concern: Technical Analysis (42/100)

Price Movement: Low — Pretty stable

Drivers: NVIDIA holds a dominant competitive position in AI infrastructure with revenue growth over double that of AMD and profit margins nearly 5x higher. | Strong earnings beat with EPS consistently exceeding estimates by 4-5.5% over the last four quarters, driven by robust AI and datacenter demand. | Institutional support is strong with 70.8% ownership and net buying activity, including a notable increase from Vanguard.

Risks: NVDA is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. | The MACD remains bearish, and RSI is neutral at 47.4, suggesting limited immediate upside from technicals. | Development activity on GitHub has slowed recently, which may signal a temporary pause in open source momentum.

Timeline Outlook: Over the upcoming weeks, NVIDIA is supported by strong competitive positioning, robust earnings momentum, and heavy institutional and options market bullishness, but near-term technical weakness and slowing open source activity warrant caution. The balance of signals points to a moderately bullish outlook, with upside contingent on price reclaiming key moving averages.

What to watch:

  • Monitor NVDA price action relative to 20-day and 50-day moving averages for a potential bullish crossover.
  • Track upcoming earnings reports and EPS estimate trends to confirm sustained demand in AI and datacenter.
  • Watch institutional ownership filings for any shifts in large holders like Vanguard.
  • Observe options flow put/call ratio and large call volumes for sustained bullish sentiment.
  • Check GitHub commit activity across NVIDIA organizations for signs of renewed development pace.
  • Monitor supply chain logistics data for any emerging cost pressures or disruption signals.

AI & Automation Exposure

Score: 60/100

Confidence: Moderate confidence

low impact

AI & Automation Exposure currently adds bullish pressure for NVDA. NVDA shows moderate AI disclosure in SEC filings with 7 mentions. Well positioned for AI transformation in Technology. Watch follow-through in ai & automation exposure signals to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • Low automation risk for Technology sector - well positioned
  • Limited AI disclosure: 7 mentions (below sector avg of 15)
  • Moderate AI competitive position

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

Competitive Intelligence

Score: 85/100

Confidence: High confidence

medium impact

Competitive Intelligence currently adds strong bullish pressure for NVDA. NVIDIA holds a dominant competitive position in AI infrastructure, with revenue growth over double that of AMD and a profit margin nearly 5x higher. Its market cap leadership and strong competitive advantage suggest continued outperformance, though valuation is neutral and market share trends need monitoring for swing trading. Watch near-term earnings catalysts and any shifts in AI spending sentiment to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • Revenue growth of 85.2% far exceeds AMD's 37.8%, showing superior demand capture
  • Profit margin of 63.0% vs AMD's 13.4% indicates pricing power and cost efficiency
  • Market cap rank #1 in semiconductors reflects investor confidence and scale advantages

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

Earnings Intelligence

Score: 72/100

Confidence: High confidence

low impact

Earnings Intelligence currently adds bullish pressure for NVDA. NVDA delivered a strong earnings beat with EPS consistently exceeding estimates by 4-5.5% over the last four quarters, driven by robust demand in AI and data center markets. The Beneish M-Score of -1.11 suggests low manipulation risk, but the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and cash flow quality below 1.0 indicate some operational inefficiencies. Watch revenue growth trend slowing (growthTrend score 25) could pressure future beats to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • Consistent EPS beats averaging 4.6% over four quarters
  • Low bankruptcy risk with Altman Z-Score of 62.84
  • Bullish analyst revisions (score 80) and high beat rate (75)

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

GitHub & Open Source Activity

Score: 59/100

Confidence: High confidence

low impact

GitHub & Open Source Activity currently is a neutral-to-mixed signal for NVDA. NVDA demonstrates strong open source leadership with 437.7K stars across 3 organization(s). Development activity has slowed recently. Monitor for recovery in development velocity to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • No recent commit activity detected
  • Diverse codebase: 1366 repos across 17 languages (Python, C++, Jupyter Notebook)
  • Strong external community: 69% external contributors (100 unique)

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

Institutional Ownership Intelligence

Score: 70/100

Confidence: Moderate confidence

medium impact

Institutional Ownership Intelligence currently adds bullish pressure for NVDA. NVDA shows strong institutional support with 70.8% ownership and net buying activity, including a notable increase from Vanguard. The bullish metrics across ownership level, change, and buying pressure suggest continued confidence, though the neutral smart money signal warrants caution for swing traders. Watch any sudden changes in top holder positions, especially Blackrock and Vanguard to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • High institutional ownership at 70.8% with net share increase of 20.8M shares
  • Vanguard increased its stake by 1.0%, signaling active accumulation
  • Bullish metrics across ownership level, change, and buying pressure

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

Options Flow Intelligence

Score: 68/100

Confidence: Moderate confidence

medium impact

Options Flow Intelligence currently adds bullish pressure for NVDA. NVDA options flow shows a bullish tilt with a low put/call ratio of 0.54 and elevated call volume, indicating strong call buying relative to puts. The put/call sentiment and volume signal are both bullish, while implied volatility is elevated, suggesting traders expect continued upward movement. Watch nVDA price action near current level of $197.58 for breakout or reversal to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • Low put/call ratio (0.54) signals bullish sentiment
  • Elevated call volume (473,636 vs 253,725 puts) supports upward bias
  • Bullish put/call sentiment and volume signal scores

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

Short Interest & Lending Intelligence

Score: 65/100

Confidence: Moderate confidence

low impact

Short Interest & Lending Intelligence currently adds bullish pressure for NVDA. NVDA's short interest is extremely low at 1.3% of float, with a massive 99.9% month-over-month decline, indicating bearish bets have been overwhelmingly closed. The short ratio of 1.7 days to cover is low, reducing squeeze potential, but the overall sentiment shift is strongly bullish for near-term price momentum. Watch any sudden increase in short interest or borrow costs that could signal renewed bearish activity to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • Short interest plummeted 99.9% month-over-month, signaling a complete capitulation of bearish positions
  • Short % of float at 1.3% is well below typical levels, reflecting minimal bearish conviction
  • Market sentiment is bullish (75/100), aligning with positive technical and fundamental catalysts

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

Supply Chain

Score: 64/100

Confidence: Guarded confidence

low impact

Limited company-specific supply chain data for NVDA. Favorable logistics environment with rising freight volumes and moderate cost pressure.

Key drivers:

  • CASS Freight Index: rising trend
  • Transport costs: moderate inflationary pressure
  • Supply chain stress: low

Signal: Above Average (change: +0)

Technical Analysis

Score: 42/100

Confidence: Moderate confidence

medium impact

Technical Analysis currently creates bearish pressure for NVDA. NVDA is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The RSI is neutral at 47.4, but the MACD remains bearish, suggesting selling pressure persists. Watch break below $189.80 support could accelerate selling to confirm or weaken this signal.

Key drivers:

  • Price below key moving averages (20-day and 50-day SMA)
  • Bearish MACD signal with neutral RSI
  • Proximity to support level at $189.80

Signal: Below Average (change: +0)

Company Profile

Fabless semiconductor design and marketing company with a platform strategy, integrating hardware, systems, software, and services.

Profile Refresh: Mar 18, 2026

Business model
Fabless semiconductor design and marketing company with a platform strategy, integrating hardware, systems, software, and services.
Customer type
Data centers, gamers, professional visualization users, automotive companies, AI model makers, enterprises, startups, cloud service providers, OEMs, ODMs, system integrators, distributors, public sector entities.
Industry group
Technology Hardware & Equipment
Subindustry
Semiconductors

Operational Exposure

China exposure
High: Subject to US export restrictions impacting sales to China, including H20, H200, and other products exceeding performance thresholds. Incurred a $4.5 billion charge due to H20 restrictions. inferred
Supply chain dependency
High: Supply chain is mainly concentrated in Asia, particularly Taiwan (TSMC) and South Korea (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Expanding into the U.S. and Latin America to add resiliency. inferred

Revenue Mix

Risk Factors Preview

Item 1A. Risk Factors,” our Consolidated Financial Statements and related Notes thereto, as well as other cautionary statements and risks described elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, before deciding to purchase, hold, or sell shares of our common stock. Overview Our Company and Our Businesses NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing to help solve the most challenging computational problems. Since our original focus on PC graphics, we have expanded to several other large and important computationally intensive fields. Fueled by the sustained demand for exceptional 3D graphics and the scale of the gaming market, NVIDIA has leveraged its GPU architecture to create platforms for scientific computing, AI, data science, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and digital twin applications...

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